Five Canadians Face Tricky Paths at Australian Open: Draw Analysis

Photo : Martin Sidorjak

The first Grand Slam event of 2025 is already upon us. On Thursday afternoon in Melbourne, the draw for the 2025 Australian Open was made, with the five Canadians in the main draw learning their paths.

Leylah Annie Fernandez and Rebecca Marino will represent Canada in the women’s singles draw, while Félix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, and Gabriel Diallo are in the men’s singles competition. All five Canadians received direct entry into the main draw.

Fernandez has arguably the most straightforward draw of the five Canadians as she will not face a player with a double-digit ranking until at least the third round. Seeded 30^th, she opens against Yuliia Starodubsteva of Ukraine, who is currently ranked No. 100. She would then face either Cristina Busca (No. 101) or wildcard Chloe Pacquet (No. 123) in round two.

That is where the intensity would ramp up severely as Fernandez is projected to meet one of the title favourites, world No. 3 Coco Gauff, in the third round. Gauff just beat Fernandez in the opening week of the season at the United Cup in straight sets.

Even if she pulls the upset, the road will not get any easier for the Canadian as the second quarter of the draw where she finds herself is one of the toughest. Potential round-four opponents include Karolina Muchova, Noami Osaka, Caroline Garcia, Belinda Bencic, and Jelena Ostapenko. Fernandez has never made it past the second round of the Australian Open in five appearances.

Marino got direct entry into the draw after some late withdrawals. That is where her luck ended as she drew No. 22 seed Katie Boulter of Great Britain in the first round. The Brit has won both of their previous meetings in straight sets, including last year on grass in Nottingham.

Were she to pull the upset, Marino would face either Veronika Kudermetova or Olivia Gadecki in the second round. 15^th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia is her projected third-round opponent, followed by No. 4 Jasmine Paolini in the fourth round. The Canadian will be making her eighth appearance in the main draw of the Australian Open, her most at any major. She has a 2-7 record, twice having reached the second round.

On the men’s side, Auger-Aliassime is the lone seeded Canadian in the singles draw at No. 29. He will face Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff in the first round. The pair have split their previous four meetings, although the Canadian leads 2-1 on hard courts. Struff won their most recent meeting last year in Munich, but it was on clay.

The draw is quite tricky for the Montrealer. If he beats Struff, he would face either veteran Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or upcomer Juncheng Shang in round two.

No. 6 seed Casper Ruud is the first potential seeded opponent for Auger-Aliassime in the third round. The Canadian leads their head-to-head 4-3, having won all three of their meetings in 2024. Their last match-up was a demolition by Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati where he lost just four games.

Tommy Paul, who Auger-Aliassime is facing this week in the semifinals of Adelaide, is his projected fourth-round opponent, followed by second-seed Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals. The Canadian has reached at least the third round in four straight appearances at the Australian Open, with his best result coming in 2022 where he reached the quarter-finals and led Daniil Medvedev two sets to love, even holding match point in the fourth set before the eventual runner-up mounted a comeback.

Shapovalov will open against Roberto Bautista Agut. The Canadian has won all three previous meetings in straight sets, including two on hard courts last year in Washington and Basel.

A victory could set up a second-round clash with No. 16 seed Lorenzo Musetti. Also looming in Shapovalov’s section are American stars Ben Shelton (round three) and Taylor Fritz (round four). The 25-year-old has only made it past the third round in Melbourne once, reaching the 2022 quarter-finals where he took the eventual champion Rafael Nadal to five sets.

Diallo will be making his third appearance in a Grand Slam singles main draw and first at the Australian Open. It is also his first time participating at a major without having to go through qualifying, earning direct entry after his strong finish to 2024, including his breakthrough run at a major when he reached the third round of the US Open, bolstered his ranking.

In Melbourne, he will open his campaign against Italy’s Luca Nardi, who famously upset Novak Djokovic last year in Indian Wells. It will be their first meeting, but if Diallo is victorious, he could renew hostilities with a familiar foe, Karen Khachanov. The two men met twice in 2024, with the 28-year-old winning both times: in Diallo’s hometown of Montreal at the National Bank Open and in the Canadian’s first ATP Tour final in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

If Diallo finally scores the win, he faces a potential gauntlet of No. 11 seed and former Australian Open runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round, home favourite and No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur in round four, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals.

All three Canadian men managed to avoid the quarter of death, the third quarter of the draw, which features both 10-time champion Novak Djokovic and four-time major champion Carlos Alcaraz. Auger-Aliassime could meet one of them in the semifinals as he is the lone Canadian in the bottom half of the draw.

Two Canadians, Marina Stakusic and Alexis Galarneau, competed in singles qualifying but both lost their first-round matches.

The doubles draw will be made on Saturday.

Tickets for the Davis Cup Qualifiers 1^st Round tie between Canada and Hungary are now on sale. Join us February 1 and 2 at IGA Stadium in Montreal, as the Canadian team begins their quest for the 2025 Davis Cup Final 8. To access tickets at early-bird pricing, click here.

Written By

Pete Borkowski